Pashinyan and Aliyev Plan Dubai Meeting for Peace Talks Amid Ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan Tensions
Turkish Sources Report Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev Plan Dubai Meeting in July
In a significant diplomatic development, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are reportedly preparing to meet in Dubai before the end of July 2025. This planned encounter marks a positive step in ongoing efforts to resolve the longstanding conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, underscoring both leaders' willingness to sustain dialogue despite persistent disagreements.
The meeting comes amid complex regional dynamics and internal political considerations, highlighting the intricate interplay of peace negotiations, constitutional discussions, and evolving geopolitical alliances. This article explores the background and implications of the upcoming meeting, the challenges each side faces, regional influences including Turkey's role, and the broader prospects for peace and normalization in the South Caucasus.
The scheduled meeting in Dubai reflects a continuity of engagement following the last encounter of Pashinyan and Aliyev in May at the European Political Community Summit in Tirana, Albania. At that event, both leaders pledged to keep channels of communication open, fostering hope for progress on a peace agreement after decades of conflict centered on the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict dates back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, with Armenian forces seizing the disputed enclave in 1993, and Azerbaijan regaining significant territory after the 2020 six-week war and subsequent military operations. While a draft peace agreement was reached in March 2025, Azerbaijan continues to press for additional conditions before signing, such as constitutional amendments by Armenia removing references to Azerbaijani territories, ending the European Union Monitoring Mission in Armenia (EUMA), and dissolving the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, which Azerbaijan accuses of bias.
Amid these delicate negotiations, Prime Minister Pashinyan faces domestic political pressures as Armenia prepares for national elections next year. Experts suggest that a constitutional referendum to meet Azerbaijan’s demands is unlikely before the elections due to political risks involved. This internal timeline adds complexity to the peace process, requiring careful balancing between domestic political stability and diplomatic progress.
Meanwhile, Turkey quietly urges Azerbaijan to conclude a peace agreement with Armenia, signaling Ankara's growing interest in the regional balance of power. Turkish officials remind Baku of the shifting geopolitical landscape, particularly noting the decline of Iran’s influence in the region. Turkey's strategic ambitions are closely tied to the peace process, viewing a stable Armenia-Azerbaijan relationship as crucial for broader regional integration.
An additional dimension to the evolving dynamics involves Turkey's efforts to normalize relations with Armenia itself. This diplomatic outreach is part of a broader vision aligning with the so-called Middle Corridor, a strategic transport route aimed at linking Turkey directly with Central Asia. Improved Armenia-Turkey ties would enhance this corridor’s viability, facilitating economic and infrastructure projects through Armenian territory, which has sparked interest among Turkish companies looking to expand regional involvement.
The drive for normalization between Turkey and Armenia gained momentum in recent years, especially following Prime Minister Pashinyan’s historic visit to Istanbul, symbolizing a thaw and recognition of Turkey’s rising influence in regional affairs. Despite historical tensions and the legacy of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict—which Turkey backed Azerbaijan on—both sides see potential benefits in closer ties that could also support the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agenda.
The prolonged conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and divergent demands have long complicated lasting peace. Yet, the forthcoming Dubai meeting represents more than a diplomatic formality; it reflects a carefully calibrated attempt to overcome deep-rooted mistrust and move toward a sustainable resolution. The involvement of external actors such as Turkey and the European Union provides additional momentum and leverage for dialogue.
While Azerbaijan insists on specific preconditions, Armenia’s sensitivity to constitutional changes and election timing reveals the dual challenge of reconciling domestic politics with international diplomacy. From a geopolitical perspective, the broader contest for influence between Turkey, Russia, and Iran continues to shape the strategic environment, adding layers to the peace process.
The positive signs in July’s Dubai meeting echo earlier exchanges, such as the brief interaction between Pashinyan and Aliyev during the BRICS summit in late 2024, which, although limited, demonstrated some willingness for communication. These interactions underscore a cautious but tangible momentum toward dialogue that could eventually lead to formal agreements, border normalization, and regional stability.
Looking ahead, stakeholders anticipate that sustained engagement, supported by international mediation and regional cooperation, could facilitate breakthroughs. Turkey's quiet yet firm encouragement of Azerbaijan to finalize a peace deal, coupled with Armenia’s outreach to Turkey itself, highlights an evolving regional architecture seeking to move beyond decades of conflict.
In conclusion, the planned meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Dubai before the end of July 2025 is a crucial development. It signifies ongoing efforts to resolve a complex conflict that has persisted since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Balancing internal political factors, such as Armenia's upcoming elections, with Azerbaijan’s conditions for peace, remains a challenge. However, the involvement of Turkey and the shifting regional dynamics provide an optimistic backdrop for progress.
This dialogue could pave the way toward a comprehensive peace agreement with far-reaching implications—from normalized bilateral relations and constitutional adjustments to expanded regional economic corridors linking Turkey, Armenia, and Central Asia. Observers and regional stakeholders will be watching closely as this diplomacy unfolds, hopeful that a durable peace in the South Caucasus may finally be within reach.