Canada is on track to deliver the weakest per capita economic growth among advanced economies for the next 40 years, according to long-term forecasts from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The grim outlook underscores growing concerns about the country’s economic foundations — from productivity stagnation to underinvestment — and signals a potentially historic reversal in living standards for future generations.

OECD Forecast: Canada Trails the Pack

In its most recent long-term projections, the OECD forecasts that Canada’s real GDP per capita will grow by just 0.7% annually between 2020 and 2030 — the lowest rate among the organization’s 38 member countries, tied with Italy. That pace is a staggering 46% below the OECD average and 42% behind the United States.

The picture hardly improves beyond 2030. Between 2030 and 2060, Canada is expected to remain near the bottom of the rankings, with per capita growth averaging only 0.8% annually. Over the full four-decade horizon, no other advanced economy is projected to underperform so consistently.

“The data point to a troubling future where Canadian living standards stagnate while those of peer countries continue to rise,” the OECD report warns. “The primary constraint is weak productivity growth — a challenge that Canada has struggled to address for decades.”

Productivity at the Heart of the Problem

The OECD identifies sluggish productivity growth as the key factor behind Canada’s disappointing outlook. Productivity — the amount of output produced per hour worked — is widely seen as the most important driver of long-term economic growth and living standards.

According to the organization’s forecasts, Canada will record the slowest productivity gains among all advanced economies from now until 2060. This weakness has persisted for years, despite growing calls from economists and business leaders for policies to boost innovation, technology adoption, and capital investment.

Reality: Even Worse Than Forecasted

If anything, Canada’s recent economic performance has been worse than the OECD’s already downbeat projections. Research from the Fraser Institute shows that between 2020 and 2024, real per capita GDP in Canada actually shrank by 2% — the steepest five-year decline since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

While most G7 countries — including the United States, France, and Japan — have returned to or surpassed their pre-pandemic per capita GDP levels, Canada remains below where it was in 2019. Germany is the only other G7 economy that has similarly failed to recover.

Stagnant Wages Meet Surging Asset Prices

The macroeconomic slowdown is compounded by a deeper structural problem: stagnant wages amid skyrocketing asset prices, particularly in housing. While productivity lags and incomes stagnate, home prices in major Canadian cities have continued to surge, often far outpacing wage growth and inflation.

The result is an economy where ownership — especially of real estate — becomes increasingly concentrated among those with existing wealth or privileged access to capital. This concentration has profound consequences: younger Canadians and new entrants to the workforce find themselves priced out of homeownership altogether, while a small segment of society sees their wealth balloon.

“It’s a paradox,” said economist Lindsay Tedds of the University of Calgary. “Rising home and asset prices technically boost GDP and contribute to economic growth on paper, but they also deepen inequality and lock out a growing share of the population from wealth accumulation.”

A $2.241 Trillion Economy — Unevenly Shared

Canada’s economy remains significant in size — roughly $2.241 trillion USD in 2025 — but the distribution of that wealth is increasingly uneven. The top 20% of households now control a disproportionate share of the nation’s assets, while the bottom 40% hold very little beyond their incomes.

This imbalance means that while aggregate figures suggest a robust national economy, the lived experience of many Canadians is one of economic stagnation or decline. As wealth concentrates at the top, the gap between asset holders and wage earners widens — undermining social mobility and eroding the promise that each generation will be better off than the last.

The 1%: Controlling the Economy’s Core

Perhaps the most striking statistic is the dominance of the top 1%. According to data from Statistics Canada, the OECD, and the World Inequality Database:

  • The top 1% of Canadians control roughly 25% to 29% of total household wealth — equivalent to about $4.3–$5 trillion CAD in assets.
  • They also capture 13% to 15% of all income generated each year, meaning they earn the equivalent of $395–$460 billion CAD annually from Canada’s total GDP.

In the 1980s, the top 1% took home about 7–8% of all income. Their share has nearly doubled in two generations, illustrating the widening gap between the wealthiest Canadians and everyone else.

This concentration of wealth isn’t just a statistic — it has real-world consequences. Those at the top have greater access to appreciating assets, investment opportunities, and political influence, creating a feedback loop where wealth begets more wealth, while the majority see their share of economic growth stagnate or shrink.

A Generation of Stagnant Wages and Shrinking Opportunity

The implications for young Canadians are sobering. The Business Council of British Columbia warns that those entering the labor market today face the prospect of decades of stagnant real wages — even as the costs of essentials like housing rise dramatically.

“Canada risks becoming a low-growth economy where prosperity plateaus and opportunities diminish,” said David Williams, vice president of policy at the Business Council of B.C. “Without significant structural change, the benefits of economic growth will accrue to a shrinking share of the population.”

The Road Ahead

Canada’s challenges — sluggish productivity, low investment, concentrated wealth, and surging asset prices — are interconnected and mutually reinforcing. Policymakers now face an urgent task: crafting a strategy that not only revives productivity growth but also ensures the country’s economic gains are distributed more fairly.

Without decisive action, the OECD’s warning may become reality: a future where Canada’s economy grows on paper, but prosperity remains out of reach for most of its people.