In July 2023, Meta launched Threads, its text-based social platform built to compete with X (formerly Twitter). Hype around the app surged almost immediately, boasting over 100 million sign-ups within five days of its debut. With Meta’s vast ecosystem—including Instagram integration—and a public hungry for an alternative to Elon Musk’s controversial changes to X, Threads seemed poised to rewrite the social media script.
But months later, the question remains: Can Threads truly succeed and dethrone X? Despite a promising start, several factors suggest that Threads might not have what it takes to replace the microblogging giant.
The Initial Boom
Threads launched at the perfect time. Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter had alienated a significant portion of its user base, as users bristled at paywalls for features, a chaotic verification process, and content moderation changes. Threads offered itself as a friendlier alternative, closely tied to Instagram’s massive 2+ billion monthly active users.
- Early Success: Within its first week, Threads saw 100 million users join, a milestone that took Twitter 5 years to reach.
- Instagram Advantage: By allowing users to link their Instagram accounts, Threads made signing up effortless, bringing in creators and influencers who were already well-established on Meta’s platforms.
- Meta’s Infrastructure: With the resources of a tech behemoth, Threads was equipped to scale rapidly and address technical issues that often plague startups.
Despite these advantages, Threads couldn’t sustain its early momentum. By mid-2023, reports indicated that daily active users had plummeted from 49 million to just 10 million—a staggering 80% drop.
Why Threads Is Struggling
- Identity Crisis:
Threads is often criticized for lacking a clear identity. Is it a casual companion app to Instagram? A professional networking tool? A news-sharing platform? Users have struggled to pin down exactly what Threads offers, leading many to revert to X, where the culture of real-time discourse and breaking news is well-established. - X’s users are deeply ingrained in its fast-paced, sometimes chaotic environment. Threads, with its overly sanitized and corporate vibe, feels less authentic—a stark contrast to X’s raw and organic culture.
- Algorithmic Limitations:
Unlike X, Threads does not offer robust search or trending features, making it difficult for users to find real-time content or discover new communities. X thrives on its ability to surface breaking news and trending topics instantly, making it indispensable for journalists, celebrities, and anyone looking to stay informed. Threads, in comparison, feels more like a passive, second-tier platform. - No Desktop Version:
Threads’ mobile-only focus has limited its usability. Professionals and power users—key demographics for X—expect a desktop interface for productivity. Meta has promised a desktop version, but the delay has cost the platform valuable momentum. - Lack of Differentiation:
Threads feels too much like a slightly watered-down version of X. Without unique features or a groundbreaking approach to social interaction, it struggles to justify why users should make the switch. Even Meta’s reliance on Instagram to funnel users into Threads has created friction: People who use Instagram for visual content aren’t necessarily seeking a text-based app.
The Role of Network Effects
Social media platforms thrive on network effects—the idea that the value of the platform increases as more people use it. X remains the dominant player in the text-based social space because its user base includes an essential mix of influencers, journalists, businesses, and niche communities.
Threads’ explosive growth was fueled by curiosity, but its drop-off highlights that curiosity alone isn’t enough. For Threads to succeed, it would need to convince users that it offers something truly unique and superior to X, while also attracting the key groups that make X indispensable. So far, it has failed to achieve either.
The X Factor
Despite Elon Musk’s controversial decisions, X has remained remarkably resilient. Its core value lies in its network effects, real-time engagement, and its position as a hub for public discourse. Musk has also introduced several initiatives aimed at monetizing the platform more effectively, including the X Premium subscription service and efforts to integrate features like payments and video content.
- Cultural Relevance: X remains synonymous with breaking news and viral moments. From live sports commentary to political debates, X has cemented its place in the cultural zeitgeist in a way Threads has yet to replicate.
- Creator Ecosystem: X’s monetization tools, like ad revenue sharing for creators, keep influencers and content producers engaged. Threads lacks similar incentives, making it less attractive for those looking to grow their brands or make money.
- Loyalty: Many X users criticize the platform but stay because no alternative offers the same reach and immediacy. Threads’ sterile approach to moderation and slower pace have made it feel more like a backup than a replacement.
The Case for Threads
While Threads faces significant challenges, it’s not without potential. Meta’s vast resources and willingness to iterate on its platforms mean that Threads could evolve into a viable competitor over time.
- Advertising Advantage:
Meta has unparalleled expertise in ad targeting and monetization. If Threads integrates ads effectively without compromising user experience, it could attract brands looking for alternatives to X. - Cross-App Integration:
Threads could leverage Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp to create a seamless experience across Meta’s platforms. Features like shared messaging or integrated reels could drive engagement. - Trust and Moderation:
Threads’ emphasis on a “safe space” for conversations might appeal to users disillusioned with X’s looser content moderation. This is particularly appealing to brands wary of advertising alongside controversial content. - Patience Is Key:
It’s worth remembering that most social platforms don’t achieve overnight success. Instagram itself took years to become the powerhouse it is today. Threads could find its footing as it continues to evolve and address user feedback.
Why Threads Won’t Replace X
For all its promise, Threads is unlikely to replace X entirely. X has entrenched itself as a cornerstone of online culture, with a user base that thrives on its immediacy, reach, and versatility.
Threads’ sanitized approach, slower pace, and limited features make it feel more like a supplementary platform than a direct competitor. While it may carve out a niche audience, it’s unlikely to usurp X as the go-to platform for real-time conversation and news.
Moreover, X’s resilience—even amid backlash—shows that its core audience is deeply committed. As long as X continues to innovate and cater to its power users, it will remain the dominant player in the space.
The Verdict
Threads’ explosive launch gave it a fighting chance, but its struggles highlight the challenges of dethroning a platform as established as X. While Meta’s resources give Threads a long runway for experimentation, it currently lacks the identity, features, and network effects necessary to pose a serious threat.
Rather than replacing X, Threads is more likely to coexist as a complementary platform. It may attract users who want a break from X’s chaos or those who prefer a more curated environment. But in the battle for text-based social dominance, X isn’t going anywhere soon.
Zoom out: Threads has potential but remains far from achieving the cultural relevance and utility of X. For now, it’s a promising runner-up in a race dominated by a seasoned veteran.