As Azerbaijan’s air force dominates the South Caucasus, Armenia grapples with internal dysfunction and external pressures that expose its vulnerabilities. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s vision of an independent Armenia—free from the influence of Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Azerbaijan—is imperiled by systemic failures and a subtle, shadowy strategy from external actors. This dynamic, coupled with Azerbaijan’s 60+ JF-17 jets, raises a pressing question: how can Armenia counter this existential challenge without falling prey to foreign manipulation?

Armenia’s Strategic Bind: Caught in a Geopolitical Web

Armenia’s pursuit of independence has been undermined by a complex interplay of regional and external forces. For years, certain foreign powers have quietly supported Azerbaijan, including during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, where Turkish pilots flying F-16s bolstered Baku’s campaign. At the same time, Armenia faced sanctions from European entities, draining its resources and weakening its military capacity. These actions left Yerevan struggling to rebuild, while Azerbaijan’s air force, now equipped with 60+ JF-17 Block III jets, solidified its regional dominance.

This external strategy—supporting one side while constraining the other—has created a lopsided power dynamic, pushing Armenia toward reliance on foreign aid. With a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 60%, loans from these actors come with strings attached, subtly shifting influence over Yerevan’s decisions. This mirrors past instances, such as the acquisition of Ameria Bank at a fraction of its value, where foreign entities capitalized on Armenia’s distress to secure strategic assets.

Pashinyan’s Vision: Independence at a Perilous Cost

Pashinyan’s ambition to forge an Armenia independent of Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Azerbaijan is a bold but precarious endeavor. In a region dominated by powerful neighbors, success demands a unified, corruption-free state. Yet, internal gatekeepers, empowered by leadership, are stifling progress. Armenian engineers and diaspora experts offering innovative solutions are routinely ignored, with a Yerevan-based defense analyst noting, “Gatekeepers, backed by those in power, see progress as a threat to their control, not a path to strength.” Meanwhile, leadership’s focus on symbolic issues, such as church-related matters, diverts attention from urgent military modernization.

Corruption exacerbates this crisis, with defense funds diverted to politically connected insiders, leaving the military reliant on outdated Soviet-era Su-30SMs and Su-25s—incapable of matching Azerbaijan’s advanced fleet. The rise in narco-trafficking incidents signals a broader governance breakdown, further eroding Armenia’s stability. In this context, any form of corruption doesn’t just weaken defenses; it risks the nation’s annihilation, inviting external actors to exploit its vulnerabilities.

The Widening Gap: Facing Azerbaijan’s Air Superiority

Azerbaijan’s 60+ JF-17s, armed with Turkish Gökdoğan and Bozdoğan missiles, offer cutting-edge AESA radar and beyond-visual-range capabilities at $32 million per unit—half the cost of the F-16 Block 70/72’s $63 million. With a maximum speed of Mach 1.6 and a 900 km combat radius, these jets, backed by Turkish technological collaboration and Azerbaijan’s role in the KAAN stealth fighter program, outmatch Armenia’s four Su-30SMs and aging Su-25s. Without a clear strategy to counter this threat, Armenia’s leadership, by enabling gatekeepers, leaves the nation defenseless against Baku’s air superiority.

Azerbaijan’s Role in the KAAN Program: A Strategic Partnership

Since joining the KAAN program in July 2023, Azerbaijan has emerged as a vital partner in Turkey’s ambitious endeavor to develop a fifth-generation stealth fighter jet, designed to rival advanced platforms like the F-22 Raptor and F-35. Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), the project’s lead, has integrated Azerbaijani expertise and resources, with parts of the KAAN being produced in Azerbaijan, fostering job creation and technology transfer. This partnership, formalized through agreements with Turkey, positions Azerbaijan as a potential early adopter of the jet, which is set to enter serial production by 2028.

The KAAN, a twin-engine, all-weather, multi-role fighter, boasts stealth capabilities, advanced avionics, and manned-unmanned teaming with Turkish UAVs like the Anka-3 and Kizilelma. With a length of 20.3 meters and a maximum takeoff weight of 34 metric tons, it is engineered for air superiority and precision ground attacks, powered initially by General Electric F110 engines, with plans for an indigenous engine by 2032. Azerbaijan’s involvement includes contributions to development and potential joint production, enhancing its access to cutting-edge technology and reducing reliance on foreign suppliers.

External Influence: A Subtle Power Play

The external actors’ approach is a calculated one, offering aid to Armenia while simultaneously empowering its rival. By withholding promised fighter jets and technology transfers, they ensure Yerevan’s dependency, using loans to secure influence over policy and assets. This creates a cycle of vulnerability, where Armenia’s weakened state invites further exploitation. The sanctions during Nagorno-Karabakh and the lack of meaningful military support have left Armenia exposed. To break free, Armenia must leverage alternative alliances and domestic ingenuity.

The Quiet Chokehold — Strategic Suppression of Armenian Defense Capacity

Behind the polished language of diplomacy and public statements of "regional stability," a more troubling undercurrent shapes Armenia’s present trajectory: the growing audacity of certain Azerbaijani voices, and the troubling acquiescence — or quiet complicity — of powerful external actors.

During a recent closed-door conference between Azerbaijani representatives and U.S. officials, tensions surfaced that stripped away any remaining pretense. Witnesses present reported an outburst from a Baku delegate:

"Do we need to come and occupy Armenia?"

Though quickly dismissed as an offhand remark, the statement reflects a broader mindset that has been steadily normalizing within certain circles in Baku — a belief that Armenia’s weakened state, combined with the tacit support of key global players, presents a unique window of opportunity for coercive dominance.

A Chilling Message: "Not Even a Bullet"

Simultaneously, persistent rumors circulate within Armenian defense and technology circles that pressure is being applied to prevent Armenia from developing even the most basic elements of sovereign defense capability. The message heard by several Armenian entrepreneurs and defense engineers is unambiguous:

“Armenia should not even manufacture a bullet.”

These words are not merely anecdotal—they reflect actual patterns of suppression. Multiple innovators who approached Armenia’s Ministry of High-Tech Industry with proposals for indigenous defense projects describe a culture of rapid disengagement. Promising initiatives, including domestic UAV platforms, small arms development, and cybersecurity systems, have been quietly shelved or met with bureaucratic stonewalling. Officials, often tied to opaque interests, drop certain topics "like a hot potato" the moment defense self-sufficiency is raised.

In parallel, members of the Armenian diaspora who have offered critical technical expertise have encountered the same resistance. As one senior engineer remarked:

“The problem isn’t our capacity; it’s that certain people have been told not to allow Armenia to become self-sufficient.”

A Path to Resilience

Armenia’s vibrant IT sector and global diaspora offer hope, but survival demands immediate action:

  1. Eradicate Corruption: Purge gatekeepers and ensure resources are directed toward national defense, not elite enrichment.
  2. Strengthen Alliances: Engage allies like India and France for military and technological support, while tapping diaspora expertise.
  3. Build Self-Reliance: Invest in domestic defense startups and dual-use technologies to reduce reliance on foreign loans.
  4. Combat Narco-Trafficking: Strengthen governance to curb illicit activities and restore public trust.

A Nation of Contrasts: Elite Wealth Amid Decline

While Armenia’s military struggles, elite wealth persists. The number of Porsches, Lamborghinis, and individuals with access to 300+ properties remains steady, highlighting a disconnect between leadership priorities and national needs. Resources that could bolster defenses are instead concentrated among the privileged, underscoring the urgency for reform.

Conclusion: A Defining Moment

Azerbaijan’s 60+ JF-17s, backed by a robust economy and strategic alliances, render its air force nearly impervious to regional threats, casting a long shadow over Armenia’s mounting challenges. Internal gatekeepers and mismanagement, compounded by external actors’ subtle influence, jeopardize Pashinyan’s vision of an independent Armenia. With rising narco-trafficking and a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 60%, Armenia must reassess the heavy cost of tolerating gatekeepers. Only unified internal collaboration can help the nation recover. If reckless leadership fails to curb corruption, it risks destroying Armenia’s potential Armenia faces a critical choice: unite to harness its strengths and build resilient alliances to counter Azerbaijan’s might, or allow corruption to erode its future, ceding sovereignty in a region where only the strategic and determined thrive.