Armenia’s Strategic Response to Azerbaijan’s Acquisition of JF-17 Thunder Jets

Azerbaijan’s recent $4.6 billion deal to acquire 40 JF-17 Thunder Block III fighter jets from Pakistan has significantly shifted the military balance in the South Caucasus, raising concerns in Armenia about its security and regional stability. Announced on June 6, 2025, by the Pakistani government, this agreement expands Azerbaijan’s initial order from 16 to 40 jets, marking Pakistan’s largest defense export to date. The move strengthens Azerbaijan’s air force and deepens its military ties with Pakistan and Turkey, prompting Armenia to explore urgent measures to counter this growing threat. This article examines Armenia’s potential responses, focusing on its efforts to modernize its air force, bolster air defenses, and diversify defense partnerships.

Azerbaijan’s JF-17 Acquisition: A Game-Changer

The JF-17 Thunder, co-developed by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, is a cost-effective, 4.5-generation multirole fighter equipped with advanced features like an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, modern avionics, and compatibility with Turkish weapons systems already in Azerbaijan’s arsenal. Powered by a Russian-designed RD-93MA turbofan engine, the jet reaches speeds of Mach 1.6, operates at altitudes above 50,000 feet, and can carry up to 3,400 kg of ordnance, including air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions. Azerbaijan’s acquisition of 40 JF-17 Block III jets, with deliveries beginning in September 2024, significantly enhances its air superiority over Armenia, which currently operates only four Su-30SM Flanker fighters acquired from Russia in 2019.

Azerbaijan’s air force previously relied on a modest fleet of Soviet-era MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters and Su-25 Frogfoot attack planes, recently upgraded to integrate Turkish munitions. The JF-17s represent a qualitative and quantitative leap, outnumbering Armenia’s fighter jets tenfold and complementing Baku’s extensive arsenal of Israeli and Turkish drones, which proved decisive in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. The deal, which includes a $2 billion investment package for joint industrial projects, also signals a deepening strategic partnership between Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Turkey, raising alarms in Yerevan about a potential trilateral military axis.

Armenia’s Military Challenges

Armenia’s air force is significantly outmatched, with its four Su-30SM jets proving ineffective during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War and subsequent clashes, including Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive that captured the region and displaced its Armenian population. The country’s reliance on Russian arms, which accounted for 94% of its imports from 2011 to 2020, has waned due to supply delays attributed to Russia’s commitments in Ukraine and strained bilateral ties. By 2024, Russian arms imports dropped to just 10%, pushing Armenia to diversify its defense partnerships with France, India, and Iran.

The JF-17 acquisition exacerbates Armenia’s vulnerabilities, particularly given Azerbaijan’s oil-funded military modernization and its strategic use of drones and precision weapons. While a March 2025 peace agreement aimed to resolve the decades-long conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan’s demands for constitutional changes in Armenia have delayed implementation, raising the risk of renewed border clashes or incursions, especially in Armenia’s southern Syunik province, where Azerbaijan seeks to establish a “Zangezur corridor” to connect with its Nakhchivan exclave.

Armenia’s Potential Responses

To counter Azerbaijan’s enhanced air capabilities, Armenia is likely to pursue a multi-pronged strategy focusing on acquiring new fighter jets, upgrading existing assets, and strengthening air defenses. Below are the key avenues Armenia may explore:

1. Acquiring New Fighter Jets

Armenia is reportedly considering India’s Su-30MKI multirole fighters to bolster its air force. The Su-30MKI, built under license by India, is a cost-effective alternative to Western options like France’s Dassault Rafale, which carries a prohibitive price tag for Armenia’s limited defense budget. The Su-30MKI offers advanced capabilities, including compatibility with the BrahMos missile (290–450 km range) and the Astra Mk1 air-to-air missile (110 km range), providing a strategic deterrent against Azerbaijan’s JF-17s, which are lighter and have a smaller payload capacity. Analyst Sam Lichtenstein from RANE suggests that India’s geopolitical rivalry with Pakistan makes it a willing partner to supply Armenia with these jets to counter Azerbaijan’s acquisition.

Armenia’s existing Su-30SM fleet could also be upgraded by India to integrate Indian-made munitions, enhancing their combat effectiveness. This move would align with Armenia’s growing defense ties with New Delhi, which has already supplied record-breaking quantities of weaponry, including the Akash-1S air defense system, since 2020.

2. Strengthening Air Defenses

Recognizing its disadvantage in air-to-air combat, Armenia is prioritizing air defense systems to counter Azerbaijan’s JF-17s and drone fleet. The Akash-1S, acquired from India in 2024, is a surface-to-air missile system with a 25–30 km range and an 88–99% kill probability against fighter jets, cruise missiles, and drones. Its performance in India’s Operation Sindoor in May 2025 demonstrated its effectiveness, prompting Azerbaijan to reassess its air strategy. Posts on X have highlighted Armenia’s air defenses as a potential counter to Azerbaijan’s drone-heavy tactics, with users noting that systems like Akash could neutralize unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles.

Armenia may also seek additional air defense systems from Iran or France to create a layered defense network, protecting key infrastructure and military assets from Azerbaijan’s growing air superiority.

3. Diversifying Defense Partnerships

Armenia’s shift away from Russian arms has led to stronger ties with France, India, and Iran. France has supplied Caesar self-propelled howitzers, and discussions for Rafale jets are ongoing, though cost remains a barrier. Iran, sharing a border with Armenia, could provide drones or missile systems to counter Azerbaijan’s technological edge. These partnerships aim to reduce Armenia’s vulnerability and deter potential aggression, though they have drawn criticism from Azerbaijan and Russia.

4. Diplomatic and Regional Strategies

Beyond military upgrades, Armenia is leveraging diplomacy to mitigate tensions. Its engagement with France and India signals a pivot toward Western and non-aligned partners, while efforts to mend ties with Russia aim to secure future arms supplies. Armenia may also push for international mediation to enforce the 2025 peace agreement and prevent escalations, particularly over the Zangezur corridor.

Regional and Geopolitical Implications

Azerbaijan’s JF-17 acquisition strengthens its military dominance in the South Caucasus, potentially emboldening it to pursue territorial ambitions, such as the Zangezur corridor, through force if diplomatic efforts stall. The deal also aligns Azerbaijan with Pakistan and Turkey, creating a formidable regional bloc that Armenia perceives as a direct threat. Social media posts on X reflect growing Armenian concerns, with some users framing India’s potential supply of Su-30MKIs as a counterbalance to this “Pakistan-Azerbaijan-Turkey axis.”

For Armenia, the challenge is not only military but economic. Azerbaijan’s oil wealth allows it to outspend Armenia on defense, making cost-effective solutions like the Su-30MKI and Akash-1S critical. However, acquiring and maintaining advanced systems will strain Armenia’s budget, necessitating foreign aid or favorable financing terms from partners like India.

Conclusion

Azerbaijan’s acquisition of 40 JF-17 Thunder jets has tilted the military balance in the South Caucasus, prompting Armenia to urgently recalibrate its defense strategy. By pursuing India-made Su-30MKI fighters, upgrading its Su-30SM fleet, and bolstering air defenses with systems like Akash-1S, Armenia aims to counter Azerbaijan’s air superiority and drone capabilities. Strengthening ties with India, France, and Iran offers a path to diversify its arsenal and reduce reliance on Russia. While a full-scale conflict seems unlikely, the risk of border clashes persists, making Armenia’s military modernization and diplomatic efforts critical to maintaining regional stability.